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- R.I.P. negative-yielding debt
R.I.P. negative-yielding debt
“Any market will gain respectability if it goes up high enough and any market will lose respectability if it goes down enough.”
– Arnold Van Den Berg
RESEARCH
Nuveen – The power of private real assets (16 pages)
Nuveen offers a few observations on the potential benefits of private real assets as a part of an overall investment portfolio.
Leigh Drogen, Corey Hoffstein & Kevin Otte review the evidence supporting the existence of a short-term momentum anomaly in blockchain based digital assets, construct possible trading strategies, and explore the potential explanations for the momentum effect.
“In the simplest terms, investing in liquid crypto markets is largely about avoiding coins that are going down and going to cash when the largest coins (BTC/ETH) are in downtrends.”
.Money.com estimates in 2020, 44% of workers with FSAs forfeited money, and the average amount was $408 per person. Workers forfeited approximately $3 billion in 2019 and $4.2 billion in 2020. Link
“If you look at all of the personal income tax returns that were filed in California in the year 2020, just 1% of the total number of income tax returns that were filed were responsible for more than 49% of all of the personal income tax that was paid in that year.” Link
“wash trading accounted for over half (58%) of the total NFT trade volumes on Ethereum in 2022” Link
“The investment return of Rolexes was higher than real estate, the stock market, or even gold over a 10-year period, from 2011 to 2021, according to Paul Altieri, founder and CEO of Bob’s Watches” Link
As of January 5, 2022, we no longer have negative-yielding debt. Link
Over the past decade, S&P 500 margins have expanded by ~400 basis points, almost all from the Tech and Comm Services sectors. Link
Marko Papic showing multipolarity is now the dominant geopolitical paradigm. Link
Alpine Macro on the contrast between the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 excluding FAAMG plus Tesla.
Source: Alpine Macro. As of 1/7/23
Value had an excellent 2022. Link
Source: Robeco
PODCASTS
The Kyle Bass Interviews – If We Don’t Get it Right, the Consequences are Dire[12/27/22 – 78 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google.
In an older episode from May 2022, Kyle Bass speaks with his friend, Wil VanLoh, CEO of Quantum Energy Partners, a private equity firm focused on energy assets for over 25 years. They walk through the history of energy transitions, the state of global energy markets today, and the necessity of the clean energy transition.
Optimizing life for maximum fulfillment | Bill Perkins[1/9/23 – 103 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google
Perkins is a successful natural gas trader and author of Die With Zero, which challenges conventional thinking related to the balance between health, wealth, and time—the three variables important for fulfillment. He argues that we need to optimize our life to have memorable experiences before it’s too late and that most people are over-saving and under-living.
John Mack on Life Lessons From Financial Crisis[1/6/23 – 62 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google
Mack is the former CEO of Morgan Stanley. He walks through the evolution of Wall Street since he started decades ago, lessons from his time in finance, and how he navigated the Great Financial Crisis.
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