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Principles for Investing Success
+ Dan Rasmussen, Jeff Currie, VC Power Laws, Randall Zisler & more!
The Idea Farm
February 11, 2024
“Bull markets ignore bad news, and any good news is reason for a further rally.”
Research
StepStone Group investigates what the primary driver of strong performance is for an institution’s venture portfolio. They say while gaining access and allocation to the best-performing funds matters, what arguably matters more is that a small number of vintage years within venture capital have historically produced most of the returns in venture capital.
Figure 2 below shows that 80% of venture capital returns have been driven by 22-30% of vintages over each of the measured periods. Said otherwise, of the 23 vintage years assessed, 80% of returns come from just 5-7 separate vintage years over the short, medium & long-term.
Vanguard - Principles for Investing Success (32 pages)
Vanguard shares a guide to help investors focus on what’s important and give them the best chance for investment success. Their principles focus on creating clear & appropriate investment goals, maintaining a balanced and diversified portfolio, minimize costs and maintain perspective and long-term discipline.
Bonus Content
A Pastor accused of a $3 million crypto scam says he may have ‘misheard God.’ Link
Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google accounted for 8% of all North American VC dollars in 2023. This post looks at the implications for entrepreneurs and the VC market. Link
Vikram Mansharamani shared a thought-provoking list of 24 global developments to watch over the next five years. Link
Dan Rasmussen gave an 8 minute presentation on ‘what the market knows for sure that just ain’t so’ (Link):
US is the best place to invest
Growth is better than value
Private is better than public
Commodities veteran Jeff Currie shares the bull case for commodities in 2024, the need for a mix of “green and brown” energy, and why he suggests being long volatility in the space (14 minutes). Link
Podcasts
 56 minutes | Real estate investor Randall Zisler shares a wealth of knowledge related to real estate valuations, REITs, public vs. private real estate investing, and more. |
 5/26/23 - 93 minutes | Barry Ritholtz speaks with John Hope Bryant, founder & CEO of Operation HOPE Inc., the largest not-for-profit provider of financial literacy and economic empowerment tools in the US. |
What Else Is Happening
Did you miss last week’s email?
Meb Faber spoke with Drew Dickson about learning under Richard Thaler, the valuation gap between the U.S. & Europe, and why he believes Tesla is overvalued.