LLMs Impact on the Labor Market

Author

The Idea Farm
January 14, 2024

“According to my rulebook, the only consistent way to make money in the markets is to cut losses and run with profits.”

Martin Zweig

Research

In Meb’s episode with Rick Rieder this week, Rick mentioned this was the most impactful paper he read last year. It investigates the potential implications of large language models (LLMs) on the U.S. labor market. They find that ~80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted.

Ben Inker covers the quality anomaly and the lack of a firm understanding on why it exists. He makes the case for building in a quality bias to your stock and high yield credit portfolio, particularly within deep value.

“If you were going to have one permanent bias in your equity and high yield bond portfolios, it should be in favor of high quality.”

Facts & Figures

79 of the 100 most expensive U.S. zip codes in 2023 are in California. Link

“The spending on Delta’s American Express cards is staggering—nearly 1% of the entire U.S. gross domestic product, Bastian said in June…Delta will collect nearly $7 billion in revenue from American Express this year from the sale of miles, ancillary services and brand fees. Its long-term goal is $10 billion. That’s nearly equal to the amount the airline generated from flying passengers in 2022.” Link

Nearly 9 million student loan borrowers (40% of the 22 million borrowers) missed their first payment after the three-year pandemic pause that ended this past fall. Source: Department of Education

"When 120 of Cornelius Vanderbilt's descendants gathered at Vanderbilt University in 1973 for the first family reunion, there was not a millionaire among them." Link

"Only 17 percent of venture funds larger than $750 million have returned to investors more than 2.5-times the total value to paid-in capital, after fees and expenses." Link

The Fed Funds rate is now almost a full point above the 2-year yield. Link

Source: McClellan Financial Publications. As of 12/19/23

Streaming wars. Link

“agriculture made up close to 85% of total US employment around the start of the 19th century; today, agricultural workers make up only about 1.4% of the workforce.” Link

Podcasts

1/4/24 - 61 minutes

From 16:00 - 34:30, Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott shares his expectations for 2024 and why he believes it’s a great time to lean into value investing strategies.

12/14/23 - 97 minutes

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz discusses his AI-assisted book "Who Makes the NBA," which explores what it takes to make it to the NBA based on a number of variables.

11/9/23 - 66 minutes

This is a fun interview with the entrepreneur ‘trying to rewrite what it means to be a tortilla chip.' He covers the history of corn, food company valuations, GMO vs. non-GMO, and the ins and outs of his business.

What Else Is Happening