📈 2024 Market Outlooks

Research Affiliates, Mutual Funds, Tom Murphy, Allison Thacker, Parenting, Alf & more

Author

The Idea Farm
December 17, 2023

Together With

“I intend to be a pig at the trough.”

Harris Kupperman

Research

While the post-GFC period has been an era dominated by the exceptional return of the U.S. 60/40 portfolio, the reintroduction of macro volatility, along with increasing geopolitical risks, are reasons Research Affiliates believes investors should reconsider tactical asset allocation in their portfolios. They highlight the opportunity in value stocks, emerging market stocks and real assets.

PwC’s 2030 mutual fund outlook predicts slower growth, consolidation, and further fee pressure. Their five main predictions are:

  1. Passive funds will account for 58% of total US mutual fund industry AUM by 2025, up from 44% in 2022.

  2. Up to 20% of today’s mutual fund firms will be acquired or eliminated by 2030.

  3. Combined active and passive fund expense ratios will decline by 19% by 2030.

  4. Mega managers will account for 65% of US mutual fund AUM by 2030, up from 55% in 2020.

  5. Assets under management (AUM) growth in US mutual funds will grow to 6% (CAGR) between 2022 and 2030, reaching $38 trillion, slowing from 7.4% between 2010 and 2022.

2024 Market Outlooks

We shared a couple of outlooks already, but here are all the 2024 outlooks we’ve found so far. You can share them on Twitter or LinkedIn.

Tker’s Sam Ro has a great post summarizing different price targets for 2024.

Summary Reports

Capital Market Assumptions

  • J.P. Morgan: 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

  • BNY Mellon: 2024 Capital Market Assumptions: The Path to Normalization

Real Estate

  • Nareit: 2024 REIT Market Outlook

  • Realtor.com: 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions

  • Redfin: 2024 Housing Market Predictions

  • Zillow: 2024 Housing Market Predictions

Miscellaneous

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Podcasts

11/22/23 - 42 minutes

Another great episode of the Founders podcast, this time about Tom Murphy’s approach to investing and building a long-lasting investment firm.

11/6/23 - 58 minutes

Allison Thacker serves as the CIO for Rice University’s $8 billion endowment. She discusses her experience as both a direct investor and endowment manager, Rice’s heavy allocation to real assets, and blending internal and external management and generalists and deep specialization.

9/20/28 - 68 minutes

Economist Melissa Kearney shares takeaways from her book, The Two-Parent Privilege, which looks at implications of the plummeting marriage rates in the US. Note: the U.S. now leads the world in single-parent households.

🤔 What Else Is Happening

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