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AQR’s Top 3 Ideas
“The art of being good at approximations is insufficiently valued.”
– Ray Dalio
RESEARCH
SVB – State of the Markets (33 pages)
SVB with its 1H 2023 State of the Markets covering increasing interest rates and the impact it may have on VC fundraising, dry powder, declining valuations, cash runway, and more.
Benedict Evans – The New Gatekeepers (104 slides)
Benedict Evans gets into the end of free money and the macro shift’s impact on tech, remaking commerce, and some thoughts about the future.
AQR’s Portfolio Solutions Group proposes value investing, trend following in alternative markets, and emerging market equities as top ideas for 2023.
Charlie Munger recently spoke at The Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting. Some of our favorite quotes are below. Link
On taxes – “California is trying force it’s wealthy people and wealthy corporations out of the state, and I must say it’s working fine, they’re leaving one after another.”
On crypto – “Sometimes I call it crypto crappo, sometimes I call it crypto shit. It’s just ridiculous that anybody would buy this stuff.” He continues: “Naturally people like to invent gambling casinos where other people lose.”
On how to do well – “If you’re just not crazy, you have an advantage over 95% of the population.”
On Alibaba – “I regard Alibaba as one of the biggest mistakes I ever made…In thinking about Alibaba, I got charmed by their position in the Chinese internet and didn’t stop to realize, ‘they’re still a God-damned retailer.”
On behavioral biases – “If I had to name one factor that dominates human bad decisions, it would be what, I call denial. If the truth is unpleasant enough, their mind plays tricks on them, and they think it is really happening. Of course, that causes enormous destruction of business…”
On taxing stock buybacks – “I agree with our President on some things but this is not one of them.”
On the future of Berkshire stock – “I don’t worry about it too much because I’m going to be dead.”
On trusting himself at the age of 99 – “So far the results have not been that bad in old age. My sex life would be a different subject.”
On stupidity – “Dumb is forever.”
PODCASTS
Steve Eisman on the ‘Paradigm Shift’ Happening in Markets Right Now[2/6/23 – 48 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google
Eisman (depicted in The Big Short) discusses why people are hesitant to accept paradigm shifts like the one he believes we’re experiencing today, along with the state of the financial system and housing market.
Trend Following Solutions ft. Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital[2/10/23 – 65 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google
Lueck discusses why he expects persistent uncertainty going forward, the role trend-following serves in portfolios, and why he’s been cautious to use machine learning.
Dr. Matthew Walker, All Things Sleep Continued[2/8/23 – 155 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google
Sleep expert Matthew Walker covers a lot of sleep-related topics, including the downside of melatonin, how to handle insomnia, the benefits of sleeping in your own bed, how sleep impacts sex, and much more.
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